The pin and the blindfold.

Watching or listening to the news on BBC you would be forgiven for wondering about their corruption of the word NEWS. So often we hear pharases like, 'It is expected that x will ...' or 'The World Bank forecasts GDP to rise by ...' or 'The jury is today to reach its verdict today on the xxxx case '.

My point is that news items used to be FACT! Fact about what has happened or is happening in this world of ours. That's news. Anything that hasn't happened is not happening is not news, it is just a forecast / prophesy / guesswork, and how accurate has that been? Why is it of interest at all? None of the billion dollar men in the banks or the media of the world apparently were able even to glimpse the approach of this financial hurricane even though many 'ordinary' people, myself included, knew full well that all except the Chinese and the Indians must inevitably be heading for pratfall bigtime. And because our leaders could not see it - OR DIDN'T WANT TO SEE IT - they did not do anything to avert it.

Forecasting is cheap and easy because you offer it up and then by the time it is supposed to happen nobody remembers it anyway. You don't have to be Mister Expert to make a forecast, whether it's on Arsenal FC v Manchester United or the price of oil or the inches of rain on the White House today.

Everybody tells anyone who'll listen what's going to happen, but it ain't news!  And it seems to this observor at least that the BBC's Head of Economics or the Head of Economics at the Royal Bank of Scotland or 'The Prime Minister's Office' have been no more accurate of late than you or me or that octopus, now deceased, in a German aquarium forecasting the results of football games - actually he was very good, thinking about it.

Indeed the government's foecast for 'UK growth' this very year has varies by a cool 300% since a year ago.
They should know by now that you cannot govern sensibly by making forecasts then struggling to make the forecast come true. As any businessman can tell you, clever reaction to that which is happening now is worth a million graphs and pages of supposition as to future.

However at this point I'll make a forecast. The BBC will go on telling us their own or someone else's opinion about the things to come. Another forecast: they'll get it wrong or if perchance it's right it will be a case of how clever the person with the pin and the blindfold.

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